Whether you’re navigating a volatile market or making life-changing decisions, prediction is power.
This course will teach you how to anticipate change before it happens.

Prediction isn’t about crystal balls—it’s about disciplined thinking.

Why is this course essential?

Because in business and life, reacting too late can be fatal.
Because the world rewards those who anticipate, not those who merely respond.
And because most people think they’re good at prediction—but fall prey to hidden biases.
This course reveals how our brains are wired to misjudge probabilities and timelines.
You’ll discover how to override these instincts and make smarter forecasts.

Module 1: Foundations of Predictive Thinking

A virtual work-shop to explore three fundamental tools in for your prediction toolbox:

• Learn the Fermi method: how to estimate anything, fast and logically.
• Understand the difference between deterministic thinking and probabilistic reasoning.
• Practice breaking down complex questions into solvable chunks.
• Apply a Bayesian approach to real-world examples including geopolitical events that challenge supply chains.

Module 2: The Bayesian Mindset

This workshop  will examine what impedes accurate probabilistic judgement:
Master approaches that prevent ‘black-and-white’ thinking, ‘hindsight bias’ and other intelligence traps.

• Understand the neuroscience behind poor judgement and jumping to conclusions.
• Practice a decision method that focusses on process rather than outcomes to improve judgement.
• Discover why being “less wrong” is more powerful than being “sure.”

Module 3: ‘Seeing Around Corners’ for Teams & Leadership

• The final session  encourage “Superforecasting” teams- Experience the particular predispositions that prevent ‘group-think’.
  – Practice structured group-based forecasting methods and post-mortem analysis.
  – Explore how leaders can foster a culture of probabilistic, adaptive thinking.

This isn’t a passive course—it’s an interactive learning lab. of thinking experiments and group tasks in a mixed company setting.